Why the UK didn't experience the predicted severe COVID wave from Omicron "escape variants"
In the UCLH-Crick Legacy study, the team asked why the UK didn't experience the predicted severe COVID wave from Omicron “escape variants” XBB and B.Q.1.1 (variants which arise from weaker immune responses to the vaccine) in winter 2022, unlike Singapore and the US. They used serum collected from Legacy study volunteers and tested for neutralising antibodies against these “escape variants” before and after the bilvalent vaccine - a type of vaccine which targets the original strain and Omicron strain.
Using data from the COVID Surveillance Unit’s specialist antibody tests against variants XBB, XBB.1.5 and BQ.1.1, they found that neutralising antibodies against these variants were boosted 3-4-fold in all participants after the bivalent vaccine. They also found any prior infection was a major contributor to high levels of neutralising antibodies against these new variants, but participants who hadn’t been infected still had neutralising antibodies against XBB after vaccination. Any 4th “encounter” with another Omicron variant, Spike, in 2022, boosted antibodies against these variants in patients who had had three vaccines. People who had been infected with the BA.1/2/5 variant had similar levels of antibodies as those who had been given the 4th vaccine. In summary, the UK’s targeted 4th dose vaccine policy by JCVI complemented widespread existing hybrid immunity in the wider UK population, protecting against the predicted severe wave of COVID-19 in UK winter 2022-3.